A new thought experiment warns of a potential global economic crisis by 2028, triggered by the rapid displacement of white-collar workers by artificial intelligence. The scenario, presented as a retrospective memo from June 2028, details how unchecked AI adoption could lead to mass layoffs, wage stagnation, and a severe recession. This isn’t a matter of if AI will impact jobs, but how quickly and whether society can adapt.
The Speed of Obsolescence
The core prediction centers on a feedback loop starting in 2026. Companies, driven by competition, begin aggressively replacing human labor with AI agents capable of unsupervised tasks. Layoffs accelerate as AI models improve, justifying further cuts. This is already happening: recent job cuts at Amazon, Expedia, and Pinterest demonstrate that AI efficiencies are a factor, even if quantifying the exact impact remains difficult.
The authors highlight a critical dynamic: businesses aren’t acting maliciously, but rationally. Each company’s decision to automate is logical in isolation, but collectively, it creates a devastating outcome. The most vulnerable jobs aren’t just eliminated; they become the drivers of even faster AI adoption as displaced workers scramble to implement the technology that cost them their positions.
Economic Collapse by 2028
By mid-2027, the U.S. economy is projected to enter a recession. Unemployment exceeds 10% by 2028 as white-collar workers flood lower-paying sectors, depressing wages across the board. The scenario envisions a surge in household debt as families rely on credit and retirement funds to cover essential expenses, setting the stage for another mortgage crisis.
Government intervention to stabilize the economy through increased social spending becomes necessary, even as tax revenues decline due to widespread wage losses. This creates further economic strain, compounding the problem. The cycle isn’t just about job losses; it’s about a systemic breakdown in economic stability.
Social Unrest and the AI Backlash
The forecast doesn’t stop at economics. By 2028, the authors predict an “Occupy Silicon Valley” movement, mirroring the 2010s Wall Street protests. Demonstrators blockade AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI, escalating tensions as the public grapples with the consequences of unchecked automation.
This unrest isn’t just a reaction to job losses; it’s a reflection of growing inequality and the perception that the tech industry is prioritizing profit over people. The authors emphasize that even if this exact scenario doesn’t unfold, the underlying trend is undeniable: AI is changing the economy faster than institutions can adapt.
The key takeaway is not about predicting the future with certainty, but about acknowledging that the pace of AI disruption is outpacing our ability to respond. Without proactive policy changes and social safety nets, the consequences could be severe.
The experiment serves as a stark warning that technological progress without foresight can undermine economic stability and fuel social unrest.
