No clear successor exists. After eight years of Gavin Newsom, the vacuum is real.
The Democratic field is crowded. Noisy. Confusing. The Times Opinion team dragged together a panel of leaders and locals to untangle it. Because left on your own? You drown.
The Weight of Things
Look at California now.
It is too expensive. Period. You can’t afford a home, or if you can, you’re bleeding cash. Insurance is a mess. Homelessness stares back at you on every corner. Federal agents tear families apart while federal funding vanishes from hospitals and universities. Gas? Expensive. Power? More. Water? A legal knot no one can untie.
Fire floods and burn the state. Climate change isn’t coming, it’s here and savage.
And yet.
This is where artificial intelligence lives. This is the biggest economic story of the age. It remains beautiful, in a terrifying sort of way, with millions still begging to move here.
Who do you ask to handle that?
The race is chaotic. Democrats range from technocratic moderates to populist firebrands. Times Opinion asked experts to grade the roster. They averaged their scores. Here’s what the chart looks like when you strip away the noise.
Who Knows Who?
We asked: What is the overall vibe?
Angie Wei, a consultant, watched it all. Most interesting thing ever, she said. But hard. The field is so wide voters can’t focus. No policy decisions happening, just noise.
Dan Morain, a journalist covering politics in the state, sees fluidity. No one knows what will stick. But the stakes are massive. High-speed rail. Mental health. What is the next governor even going to do about those?
Addisu Demissie, who managed Newsom’s campaign, notes a profile problem. Nobody has the name recognition of the last three governors. Not Newsom. Not Brown. Not Schwarzenegger. They’re struggling to say who they are before saying what they stand for. Tom Steyer has burned over $130 million and still hasn’t pulled ahead. It stays fluid. Until the end.
Tracy Hernandez, a civic leader from L.A., finds excitement. The outcome isn’t preset. Stimulating. Unlike most statewide races where the winner is chosen by March.
Dan Schnur, a political professor, sees the ideological split forming. Steyer and Porter for the left. Mahan and Villaraigosa for the center. Hilton and Bianco for the right. Becerra? Safe. Comforting. Exactly where we are now.
Experience vs. Celebrity
Lots of candidates haven’t been in Sacramento. Porter, Steyer, the Republicans. Is that a worry?
Mariel Garza points out a weird reality. Eric Swalwell and Steve Hilton led for weeks before dropping out. They lacked executive experience but had celebrity. Fox News. MS NOW. If voters truly cared about resumes, Betty Yee or Tony Thurmond would be at the top. They aren’t.
Hernandez draws a line in the sand. Congress or legislature? That’s a zillion of you. Being a mayor? A C.E.O.? The buck stops there. That’s power brokering.
Morain nods. Villaraigosa was speaker, mayor of L.A. Huge job. Polling around five percent. Experience doesn’t always buy votes.
Wei thinks voters demand more. Run scenarios. Wildfire starts. Global pandemic hits. What are your first five moves? Test them. We can’t predict who panics when the sky falls next.
The Force of Personality
Newsom is central. Jerry Brown was direct. Who matches that?
Morain says Villaraigosa, Steyer, and Porter could all be forceful. A presence, without a doubt. Hilton too.
Sara Sadhwani agrees. Steyer and Villaraigosa aren’t Brown clones, but they’re straightforward. They tackle issues instead of reciting stump speeches. Steyer feels unfettered by party interests. That appeals.
Quick Takes
Who are these people really? Strengths? Weaknesses?
Xavier Becerra:
Strength: He knows the machine. Relationships matter.
Weakness: Cautious. Overly safe. Answers with, “I’ll look at that.” He respects structure, not risk.
Tom Steyer:
Strength: Bold. Not beholden to usual interests. A disrupter.
Weakness: No governing experience. No negotiation muscle with the Legislature. Too many promises. Too many to too many people.
Steve Hilton:
Strength: Optimism. An accent. Reminds people of Schwarzenegger’s immigrant appeal. He would likely align with Trump, which for some Republicans, is the strength and the weakness. Get along with him? That’s his entire brand.
Weakness: Believes he can do big things without Democratic votes. A misguided belief from term one, repeated here.
Karen Porter:
Strength: Policy-specific. Realistic about what works. Could be a serious executive.
Weakness: Bad choices in navigation. Might struggle to build alliances.
Antonio Villaraigosa:
Strength: Ran L.A. as if it were a state. Handled volatility well.
Weakness: Away from power for a long time. Lost his allies. The political capital is gone.
The Housing Trap
Newsom shifted the regulatory landscape. Now everyone talks modular homes and building mandates. Who actually builds?
Kara Murray Badal, a housing expert, is skeptical of knowing capability pre-election. We need 70,001 affordable units a year just to stand still. If we don’t, the state crumbles. A governor won’t know every nuance, but must be willing to iterate. Learn. Adjust. We passed 100 bills. Still figuring it out.
Hernandez says the aspiration era is dead. People face reality. Can’t rent. Can’t buy. Graduates leave. They’re going.
Garza notes the governor’s leash is short. Local cities decide where houses go. A new bill tried to change that near transit hubs. Cities fought it, tooth and nail. They want control.
Badal adds that the governor controls the new Housing and Homelessness Agency. Implementation is key. Needs a cabinet chief who knows financial risk.
Demissie trails off. Housing was issue one in 2017. Then came the pandemic. He doesn’t claim policy expertise on this panel, leaving the silence heavy.
A readiness to be innovative… and iterate when we find things out.
That’s all there is. Iterate. Fix. Build. Or don’t.
